Super Draft Lottery Remix Extravaganza!

I had been throwing out my draft lottery remixes for the past few months, enjoying writing with a hindsight of 20/20 about how NBA draft lotteries should have played out.  My initial interest in doing this was from a SLAM magazine from nearly ten years ago talking about my beloved '96 draft. They redid the draft on how it should have went.  I thought that was a cool concept. 

I highly doubt SLAM was the first to do this, but it was the first I had ever seen.  Bill Simmons frequently makes mention "if player X was drafted knowing what we know now, he would have went first," or "player Y would have been a late first-round pick instead of a lottery pick if...".  So it got me thinking about ranking them myself.  It would help me remember players I forgot, remind me how "blank" used to be good before he declined drastically and we forgot he was good in the first place.  Etc. etc. etc.

Well Mr. Simmons one upped me by redoing every draft from '95 forward in a monster Grantland column last week.  My initial thought was one of dread.  I didn't want to look like a copycat if I kept doing it, and I didn't want to be influenced by his choices.  Then I had a revelation, what if I compare my picks to his?  See how I stack up against an expert?  Maybe mine are better?  Maybe I'm crazy? 

1995

BS                                        VP
1. Kevin Garnett                   1. Kevin Garnett
2. Rasheed Wallace            2. Rasheed Wallace
3. Jerry Stackhouse             3. Jerry Stackhouse
4. Michael Finley                  4. Michael Finley
5. Antonio McDyess            5. Antonio McDyess
6. Theo Ratliff                       6. Theo Ratliff
7. Damon Stoudemire        7. Damon Stoudemire
8. Joe Smith                         8. Joe Smith

A perfect match?!?  Well let's move to '96 and see if there is something to discuss.

1996


BS                                       VP
1. Kobe Bryant                    1. Kobe Bryant
2. Allen Iverson                    2. Allen Iverson
3. Steve Nash                     3. Steve Nash
4. Ray Allen                         4. Ray Allen
5. Jermaine O'Neal            5. Marcus Camby
6. Peja Stojakovic              6. Stephon Marbury
7. Marcus Camby               7. Jermaine O'Neal
8. Stephon Marbury            8. Peja Stojakovic
9. Antoine Walker               9. Antoine Walker  
10. Zydrunas Ilgauskas     10. Shareef Abdur-Rahim
11. Shareef Abdur-Rahim 11. Zydrunas Ilgauskas
12. Kerry Kittles                  12. Kerry Kittles

Here's some discrepancies. 5-8 are the big ones.  As you can see, they are all the same players, just in a different order.  I think I weighed Camby's entire career over his peak which is why he is 5.  If you go by peak, O'Neal's was greater because he was an All-Star.  Also Peja was in MVP contention in '04, which again was his peak, but his career as a whole took a nosedive after that.  The point is, I understand why he was ranked 6th on the BS list.  The last three are all the same and just order differently, but when you get into the big scheme of things, those three don't amount to much.

1997

I hadn't written this one yet.  Looking at the class, it wasn't very deep (Duncan, McGrady, Billups are the only big time names) so there wouldn't have been much deviation I'm assuming. 

1998

BS                                        VP
1. Dirk Nowitzki               1. Dirk Nowitzki
2. Paul Pierce                  2. Paul Pierce
3. Vince Carter                3. Vince Carter
4. Antawn Jamison         4. Antawn Jamison
5. Mike Bibby                  5. Rashard Lewis
6. Rashard Lewis            6. Mike Bibby
7. Al Harrington               7. Al Harrington
8. Larry Hughes               8. Larry Hughes
9. Cuttino Mobley             9. Cuttino Mobley
10. Jason Williams         10. Jason Williams
11. Raef LaFrentz           11. Raef LaFrentz

The only reason I can think of that Bill put Bibby over Lewis is that Bibby was on better teams for a majority of his career.  That's a valid point, but Bibby wasn't ever the man on those great teams.  Lewis wasn't either, but he was an All-Star.  And his best 5 or 6 seasons he scored 18-20 PPG.  I'm sticking with my picks.

1999

BS                                           VP
1. Shawn Marion               1. Shawn Marion
2. Manu Ginobili                2. Elton Brand
3. Elton Brand                   3. Manu Ginobili
4. Rip Hamilton                 4. Baron Davis
5. Lamar Odom                 5. Rip Hamilton
6. Baron Davis                  6. Lamar Odom
7. Andre Miller                   7. Jason Terry
8. Steve Francis                8. Steve Francis
9. Andrei Kirilenko            9. Andre Miller
10. Ron Artest                   10. Ron Artest
11. Wally Szczerbiak        11. Wally Szczerbiak
12. Jason Terry                 12. Corey Maggette
13. Corey Maggette         13. Andrei Kirilenko

I really struggled with this draft.  It's a weird one for sure.  It's full of complimentary All-Stars.  How do you decide who does more?  Every team has different needs based on their superstar, and all superstars are different.  Ginobili was always a 3rd banana, but does that automatically make him less important than Jason Terry who was a 2nd banana for the most part?  It's confusing stuff.  So this one I'm not going to defend one way or the other.

2000

BS                                        VP
1. Kenyon Martin               1. Michael Redd
2. Michael Redd                2. Kenyon Martin
3. Jamal Crawford            3. Jamal Crawford
4. Hedo Turkoglu              4. Mike Miller
5. Mike Miller                     5. Hedo Turkoglu

The Holy Grail of awful drafts.  By the time Jamal Crawford retires, you could probably argue that he could be number one. He's still kicking, with no signs of slowing down.  Yet he never was an All-Star or Olympian like the two guys ahead of him.  I gave Redd number one because he averaged 21+ for 6 seasons, that's pretty damn good.  Martin obviously played on better teams though. 

2001

I hadn't written this one yet either.  Which is a shame because it was a pretty stocked draft.  (Tony Parker, Pau, Joe Johnson, Z-Bo, Tyson Chandler, Shane Battier, Arenas, Jason Richardson.)  If you are wondering why I hadn't done some of these it's because I was just randomly picking them.  Things like that drive my wife crazy, but hey it made it interesting because you never knew what was coming next.

2002

2 in a row!  Oh crap, now it's starting to look bad.  (Amar'e, Caron, Yao, Boozer, Tayshaun, Nene.  Decent draft)

Hopefully something memorable happened in '03 that motivated me to write about it.  (That was sarcasm if you couldn't pick up on it.)

2003

BS                                          VP
1. LeBron James                   1. LeBron James
2. Dwyane Wade                   2. Dwyane Wade
3. Carmelo Anthony               3. Carmelo Anthony
4. Chris Bosh                         4. Chris Bosh
5. David West                        5. David West
6. Boris Diaw                         6. Chris Kaman
7. Kirk Hinrich                        7. Mo Williams
8. Kyle Korver                        8. Kirk Hinrich
9. Josh Howard                     9. Josh Howard
10. Kendrick Perkins           10. Kyle Korver
11. Mo Williams                   11. Boris Diaw

This is the first time that we don't have exactly the same players listed.  I had Kaman at 6, and he had Perkins at 10.  That's a pretty big difference for Kaman.  My reasoning was that he was an All-Star in 2010, yet maybe I did place him a bit high.  I still think he should be on the list over Perkins.  I think that was Bill's Boston bias kicking in.  Kaman's ceiling and overall career has been way better than Perkins.  But his number 6, Diaw makes more sense now then when I wrote this originally.  Diaw hadn't had his career renaissance yet. Diaw's Finals play would have bumped him up for me as well.  Even though I love Korver, I was surprised to see him rated so high.  I guess Mr. Simmons loves his shooters.  There is no arguing the top 5 though. 

2004

OK now it's just getting embarrassing.  (Howard, Iggy, J-Smooth, Deng, Big Al.)

2005

I promise it's not my fault, I didn't know he was going to release his blog.  Otherwise I would have done mine much for frequently!  That was a pretty good excuse for being lazy right?  (CP3, D-Will, David Lee, Bogut, Bynum, Granger, Gortat, Ellis, J-Jack.  Damn that was a pretty good one.)

2006

BS                                             VP
1. LaMarcus Aldridge            1. Rajon Rondo
2. Rajon Rondo                      2. LaMarcus Aldridge
3. Paul Millsap                        3. Rudy Gay
4. Kyle Lowry                          4. Paul Millsap
5. Brandon Roy                      5. Brandon Roy
6. Rudy Gay                            6. Andrea Bargnani
7. J.J. Reddick                       7. Kyle Lowry
8. Andrea Bargnani               8. Randy Foye

Firstly, the numbers 1 and 2 are flipped.  I gave the edge to Rondo because the dude has lit it up in the playoffs, all the way to the Finals.  Aldridge has only "lit it up" in one round of the playoffs for his whole career.  I really surprised the Boston sympathizer would rank it that way, but either way I disagree.  I also don't hate Rudy Gay as much as everyone else does.  I justify that by him he was selected for a FIBA team.  No slouch would make that team.  And maybe I'm basing it more off of potential than anything else; he has only made the playoffs once.  Not necessarily his fault (i.e. Kevin Love) but something to think about.  I did overrate Bargnani; he clearly has peaked and regressed while everyone else (sans Roy) is still going up or at least remaining firm.  Speaking of Roy, at the pace he was on, he probably could have been number one.  It's a shame how injuries can ruin the brightest careers.  I also think he overrated Lowry a bit.  Don't get me wrong, I love Lowry and think he got hosed on the All-Star team this year, but he had always been a reserve until this season.  Is he still rising?  Absolutely, but given what he's done as of today, he fits better at my number 7 I feel.  (Yes he will end up higher eventually.)  Randy Foye?  What the hell was I thinking? 

2007

BS                                         VP
1. Kevin Durant                  1. Kevin Durant
2. Joakim Noah                  2. Joakim Noah
3. Marc Gasol                     3. Marc Gasol
4. Al Horford                       4. Al Horford
5. MIke Conley                   5. Jeff Green
6. Arron Afflalo                   6. Mike Conley
7. Jeff Green                      7. Carl Landry
8. Thaddeus Young           8. Thaddeus Young
9. Spencer Hawes             9. Wilson Chandler
10. Tiago Splitter              10. Rodney Stuckey

As usual, the middle tier is where opinion starts to differ.  I again had a Celtic ranked higher than Bill.  Is this some alternate universe?  I had Afflalo at 11 on my list, clearly Billy favors him more.  He is coming off a career-year, which may have upped Bill's opinion of him.  That's not a knock on AA by any means, and honestly I ranked him too low anyway.  Why did I put Stuckey so high?  That's two straight years of some off the wall inclusion.  I won't apologize for Carl Landry though.  I love that guy, and I don't care who knows it. 

2008

I told myself that I wasn't going to go passed 2007 because some of those guys weren't even in their primes yet.  I do feel that 08's class is in their prime and what they do after it will ultimately decide their destinies.  I think that most of the guys have peaked or are close to it.  I honestly can't say that for 2009's class yet.  So here's what I'm going to do.  I'm going to look at '08 again.  And with no research of stats or achievements I'm going to rank them.  I won't look at Bill's list either until I'm done.  Just purely off of instinct.  Here we go.   

VP                                                                     BS
1. Derrick Rose                                                1. Russell Westbrook
2. Russell Westbrook                                       2. Kevin Love
3. Kevin Love                                                    3. Derrick Rose
4. Brook Lopez                                                4. Serge Ibaka
5. Roy Hibbert (Could be sinking drastically.)5. Goran Dragic
6. Goran Dragic                                               6. Roy Hibbert
7. Serge Ibaka                                                  7. Brook Lopez
8. Eric Gordon                                                  8. Nic Batum
9. DeAndre Jordan                                           9. DeAndre Jordan
10. Omer Asik                                                 10. Nikola Pekovic
11. Nic Batum                                                 11. Ryan Anderson
12. Ryan Anderson                                         12. Omer Asik
13. Danilo Gallinari                                         13. Eric Gordon
14. Nikola Pekovic                                          14. Danilo Gallinari  
15. George Hill                                                15. George Hill
16. Robin Lopez                                              16. Robin Lopez

If you need any further proof they are in their prime look at this 16 man list.  The closest is '99's 13 man list.  As the years go by, the bottom couple of these will possibly fluctuate, and definitely be cut off entirely.  It's just the way it works. 

The first thing that popped out to me was how many quality centers were drafted this year.  (And they say "center" is dead?)  With the exception of Howard, isn't this every great center in the NBA?  (OK Marc and Al are the year before.)  Obviously these guys will move around a ton, but let's just look at the top 3. 

Derrick Rose is obviously in limbo.  I put him 1 just because the dude was MVP.  Worst case scenario, he never plays again.   I'm sure Westbrook would probably pass him just due to quantity over quality.  Granted, Westbrook could be MVP some day as well.  Either way I would still put Rose over Love at this point.  Should Rose never regain form, then Love can definitely blow passed him. 

Eric Gordon is a guy who, when healthy, is probably a top 5 guy from this class. He needs to find his way back on the court though.  Translation: maybe I ranked him too high off of instincts. 

I find it pretty remarkable that we picked all 16 guys the same.  I mean you would have thought maybe my number 16 and his 17 could have been flip flopped pretty easily wouldn't you?  Great minds think alike? 


Conclusion

Someday I'll do 2009 and beyond, but as I mentioned, it's too early to rank those in my opinion.  (Seriously how do you rank the class of '13?!?) There was definitely some striking similarities which leads me to believe that talent is easier to define than I thought it would be.  That, or we're both crazy.  How would you have ranked them?   

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